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Heretofore
There was a question mark, pointedly, right at the end, approaching your spirit in the thorns. You moved gracefully, lyrically, over the edge, and I could not bear to watch anymore. The pain you spoke flowed deep in the earth, and no matter the tools that I bore, I could never get it out, and…
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Mise en Abyme
A movie about the entertainment industry, that shows itself being made. A proof about the existence of proof, which rests upon itself to stand. A poem about poetry, illustrating its own drafting. It’s graceful to mix subject and predicate; to reveal the craft. What is this then?
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Summer Birthdays
My regret sits, a droplet on a small statue of marble;perched upon the river. Wondering whether it’s better to slowly evaporate,or, be knocked into the current by splashes from ecstatic kids;playing with irises compressed in the bright sun like heroin addicts. Neither choice being better than the other, and marble a stone of comfortable make,…
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A Lifetime
A minaret rises above space and time.Each stone a place tucked away in the mind.Walking the steps to the top; the future laying bare.Marriages, graduations, but looking further; I wouldn’t dare. Afraid moving upwards; where I’d be, what I’d see.Backwards, memories I recalled; cakes, balloons, embraces. A reel rolling as my eyes scan down the…
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The Judge
The Phantom Cart, 1933 Salvador Dali “I know,” said the Judge. “What do you know?” “Everything.” “I see the shadows hiding creased between shadows; hear whispers swept beneath empty ash.” “You were so kind to me.” “I’m still kind to you. A kindness chained as a marionette.” “In the dark gospels of my book I…
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Push and Pull
The author expresses a desire for struggle, finding meaning and narrative in life’s ups and downs. They describe the interplay of manic energy and tranquil moments, leading to a sense of melancholic longing. This dynamic experience contrasts sharply with a potentially monotonous existence, transforming life into something vibrant.
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A Poem
The text reflects on the nature of power and sin, highlighting the complexity of emotions stemming from hurt. The author expresses a desire to connect with those who wield power, seeking grace to rise above cynicism. Ultimately, there is hope for clarity and meaningful communication amidst the turmoil.
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ZzZzZzzzz
This poem evokes a tranquil, sleepy atmosphere, capturing serene moments like a Sunday by the shore or a lazy morning with coffee. It reflects nostalgia through imagery of family traditions and a dog’s calmness by the fireplace, ultimately suggesting the value of rest and encouraging a nap.
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Kernel-Embedded Gaussian Processes for Bayesian Computation and Model Evaluation
(Work in Progress) It had been a while since I had worked on a technical blog post, so I wanted to get something out there. I have been playing around with a lot of concepts in my head centering on Gaussian processes and using them for Bayesian computation. Most of the time when I write…
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White Washed Jeans
White washed jeans; cowboy boots encircled by the bottoms.Silver hoop earrings beneath a stetson hat, hiding hazel eyes from the March sun.Periwinkle cotton blouse, plain. Cafe on the corner.Stop in; cappuccino with oat milk.Go to church and visit the florist en route home.Carnations and baby’s breath; situated gingerly,on the driftwood coffee table. Brother is visiting.…
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In Pursuit
The poem reflects on a journey of self-discovery and return. The speaker muses on the pursuit of dreams and the contrasting experiences of running towards and away from something. Ultimately, after a long journey, the individual reconnects with their roots and finds a sense of peace and belonging.
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Travel
The narrative reflects on cherished memories tied to various travel experiences, including family trips, summer fishing, and significant encounters in Montana, Spain, Morocco, and Chile. It highlights connections made with people across cultures, shared meals, unexpected adventures, and the passage of time, all woven into a rich tapestry of personal identity and growth.
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Pronouncement
A gunshot echoes as a heartbeat ceases, signaling despair and a plea for help. A bystander in a cafe is implored to act amidst violence. The narrator reflects on inaction, guilt, and the weight of responsibility as personal belongings scatter, symbolizing a life tainted by violence at a specific intersection.
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A Few Results on Spatial Dirichlet Processes
The author reflects on unfinished work regarding Spatial Dirichlet Process models and their convolutions with white noise, expressing a desire to improve clarity in exposition. Key concepts include Gaussian processes, Hilbert spaces, and Dirichlet processes. Despite the complex mathematics involved, the author presents theorems and proof strategies in a more accessible manner.
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A Memoire
The narrative explores an artist’s journey through medical education and personal relationships, highlighting the balance between growing responsibilities and evolving friendships. Amid academic pressures, late-night escapades, and discussions about marriage, the couple navigates life changes, ultimately moving for work while maintaining family bonds and cherishing shared moments.
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Decision Theory for Large-Scale Outlier Detection Using Aleatoric Uncertainty
The content discusses aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks and its application to outlier detection. By leveraging decision theory, the author explores how modeling uncertainties in parameters and data generating mechanisms can enhance outlier classification. This involves formulating loss functions and employing Bayesian false discovery rate strategies for effective threshold setting.
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Bayesian Decision Theory for Gaussian Process (GP) Models with an Application Towards Approximate Evaluation of Source Functions Generating the GP as a Solution to a Differential Equation.
The author explores the integration of decision theory within the framework of Gaussian processes, focusing on nonparametric models. They highlight the relevance of selecting appropriate loss functions when applying Bayesian decision principles, particularly in the context of ordinary differential equations. Applications and future exploration in financial modeling and clustering are also suggested.
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Going way back
The narrator reflects on a friend from their rebellious past who struggles with stability and fitting into societal expectations. They meet for coffee occasionally, discussing life updates, but the friend’s ability to confide has diminished. This creates a sense of distance, prompting the narrator to express a desire to understand their friend better.
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Bayesian Inversion
This post discusses Bayesian inversion as a probabilistic method for solving inverse problems in geophysics. It emphasizes its advantages over deterministic methods and explores the theoretical foundations. Key concepts include parameter influence, uncertainty in solutions, and the implications of observations on Bayesian analysis, particularly in defining closeness through the parameters of the problem.
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Some Statistical Properties of Mixture Density Networks
The author shares insights from a recent project on Mixture Density Networks (MDNs), highlighting their statistical foundations and applications. MDNs predict distribution parameters instead of deterministic outcomes and utilize neural networks for inference. The discussion emphasizes maximizing likelihood and Kullback-Leibler divergence, while acknowledging challenges in identifiability and assumptions necessary for model building.
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Dirichlet Process Projections
The blog post explores hierarchical modeling using Dirichlet processes combined with projections onto orthogonal random vectors. The author discusses the challenges of maintaining orthogonality while developing a Bayesian nonparametric framework and introduces a new modeling approach that incorporates dimension changing, MCMC algorithms, and potential applications in function spaces with Gaussian processes as base measures.
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Learning a New Language As An Adult
The author shares personal experiences about learning Spanish and Portuguese as an adult, attending MeetUp groups, and seeking individualized tutoring. They highlight the fun and rewarding aspects of language learning, offering tips on applications, media resources, conversational groups, and language exchanges. Ultimately, motivation and practice are key to success.
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Beleza
O texto evoca uma imaginação vívida sobre a natureza, misturando sons de pássaros com a beleza dos lírios. A areia se transforma em vidro sob o calor, simbolizando transformação e liberdade. Há um tom de rebeldia ao se “roubar” os pássaros de suas asas, permitindo uma visão além do horizonte.
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A Critique of Pure Reason
The narrative explores the intersection of rationality and emotional clarity through various characters. A conversation at a bar prompts reflections on societal norms and personal struggles, revealing the complexities of mental health and relationships. The poet grapples with translations of emotions and memories, contemplating life’s uncertainties and connections.
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Personal Intentional Choice
The passage emphasizes the importance of choice in life. It contrasts the solitude under great trees with the fulfillment of being part of something profound. It encourages living authentically, serving others selflessly, and leaving a meaningful legacy that resonates through time, like poetry reflecting one’s essence amid silence and skepticism.
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Walking There
The narrator reflects on a journey through a mysterious space, marked by tracks in the earth and an interplay of light and shadow. Amidst the exploration, they confront their inner self, acknowledging the clarity gained and the reasons for their departure. The experience is both introspective and transformative, leading to a renewed understanding.
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The content explores a journey of transformation from insecurity to self-realization, emphasizing moments of joy and despair. It reflects on the fleeting nature of grace, the loss of camaraderie, and the emergence from darkness influenced by external pressures. Ultimately, it concludes with a powerful declaration of personal growth and identity change.
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The imagery portrays a juxtaposition of beauty and struggle, from crimson volleys and graceful ballerinas to families bickering in nature. Themes of isolation and tension emerge through connections marked by barbed wire and the narrator’s vulnerable state at a well, reflecting on profound moments amid everyday life.
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The poem reflects on a personal connection to a star located on a crescent moon, emphasizing its changing position over time with seasons and years. Despite the uncertainty of its exact cosmic location, the speaker asserts ownership and enduring significance of that star in their life.
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Yellow
The piece reflects on a fragile beauty found in an overlooked setting, juxtaposed with a vibrant urban atmosphere. It describes the contrast between an isolated artistic experience amidst everyday clutter and a lively downtown scene filled with college students and nightlife, suggesting a search for meaning in mundane surroundings.
Hello! I’m Ryan Warnick. Welcome to my personal blog. I’m a statistician by training working as a Data Scientist at Microsoft Security Research. Prior to joining Microsoft I worked as a High Performance Computing Computational Scientist at the BP Center for High Performance Computing; building stochastic models for Seismic inversion problems.
Some of the mathematical topics I’m interested in include:
- Bayesian Analysis; application and theory
- Probabilistic Graphical Models
- Computational Statistics; particularly related to Bayesian Statistics and exploiting conditional independence relationships
- Bayesian Nonparametrics
I’ve also recently become interested in Decision Theory, or decision making under some notion of optimality in uncertain environments.
During my previous more computational role I was primarily focused on the following computational tools:
- Probabilistic Programming Languages (PPLs)
- Automatic Differentiation (AD)
- High Performance Computing (HPC)
Primarily how these computational tools can accelerate or improve the accuracy of probabilistic or Bayesian modeling.
I do my best to make work I’ve done or been associated with public whenever possible, so if you’re interested in papers you can find them by clicking the Publications and Award link in the dropdown on the upper right.
Technical blog posts are not peer reviewed and may contain errors, but the goal is to use this site as a playground to play with ideas and potentially spark curiosity in others on particularly topics.
All opinions are my own and not those of my employer.